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This Thursday 01 Jul at 02:00 PM GMT the latest US ISM Manufacturing PMI number will be released.
If the number is less than than economists’ consensus there is a 75% probability that USDCAD will trend down following the news event.

This probability is based on the last 12 US ISM Manufacturing PMI events, in which 3 of the last 4 events where the actual number was less than than the economist consensus resulted in an down trend of USDCAD.

Here are images of the past events:

Monday 03 May at 02:00 PM GMT:

Tuesday 01 Dec at 03:00 PM GMT:

Thursday 01 Oct at 02:00 PM GMT:

Disclaimer: Past performance may not be indicative of future performance