Based on the last 12 Retail Sales MoM events in United States, we expect a 23 pip movement on GBPUSD within 4 hours following the event release at 2023-06-15 22:30. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 2023-06-15 22:30 if the released value is > -0.1%

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Feb 00:30	17 Nov 00:30
15 Sep 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).