Based on the last 12 Retail Sales MoM events in United States, we expect a $450 movement on EURUSD within 4 hours following the event release at 16 Jun 22:30. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 16 Jun 22:30 if the released value is > 8%

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

13 Sep 22:30	15 Aug 22:30
16 Jul 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).