We expect USDCAD to trend downwards for the next 12 hours. Based on these past United Kingdom Claimant Count Change news events there is a 83.33% chance of this. We expect this to happen because the released value is < 175K. A price movement of 39 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

18 Feb 20:30	21 Jan 20:30
15 Oct 19:30	10 Sep 18:30
13 Aug 18:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).