We expect USDCAD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past Australia Balance of Trade news events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect this to happen if the released value is < A$10B. A price movement of 21 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

04 May 11:30	01 Apr 11:30
07 Jan 11:30	03 Sep 11:30
02 Jul 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).