We expect USDCAD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past Japan Balance of Trade news events there is a 83.33% chance of this. We expect this to happen if the released value is > ¥-37.5B. A price movement of 174 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

19 Aug 09:50	17 Jun 09:50
18 Mar 10:50	19 Feb 10:50
18 Sep 09:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).