USDCAD could trend upwards later today. Based on these past Japan Balance of Trade news events there is a 75% chance of this. This could happen only if the released value is > ¥-1150B. The price movement may be as big as 198 pips.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

20 Jan 10:50	18 Aug 09:50
19 Apr 09:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).