We expect USDCAD to trend upwards for the next 12 hours. Based on these past United States Retail Sales MoM news events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect this to happen because the released value is > 0.2%. A price movement of 64 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

15 Sep 22:30	17 Feb 00:30
17 Nov 00:30	15 Oct 23:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).