We expect USDJPY to trend downwards later today. Based on these past Japan Balance of Trade news events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect this to happen if the released value is > ¥250B. A price movement of 24 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Sep 09:50	17 Jun 09:50
18 Mar 10:50	18 Dec 10:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).