We expect USDJPY to trend upwards later today. Based on these past United States Retail Sales MoM news events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect this to happen if the released value is < 0.2%. A price movement of 32 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Oct 23:30	14 Jun 22:30
15 May 22:30	01 Apr 23:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).