Want to know why EURUSD is going downwards for the next 4 hours?

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Australia, we expect a $200 movement on EURUSD within the next 4 hours. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards for the next 4 hours because the released value is > A$10.3B

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

02 Sep 11:30
03 Jun 11:30
04 Mar 11:30
04 Feb 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).