Want to know why EURUSD is going downwards today?

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Australia, we expect a $130 movement on EURUSD within 4 hours following the event release at 03 Feb 11:30. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 03 Feb 11:30 if the released value is < A$ 13B Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

01 Jul 11:30
04 May 11:30
01 Apr 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).