Want to know why GBPUSD is going downwards today?

Based on the last 12 NAB Business Confidence events in Australia, we expect a 57 pip movement on GBPUSD within 4 hours following the event release at 2023-01-24 11:30. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 2023-01-24 11:30 if the released value is < 3 Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

13 Dec 11:30
08 Nov 11:30
11 Oct 11:30
12 Jul 11:30
25 Jan 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).