Based on past United States ISM Manufacturing PMI news events there is a 75% chance of GBPUSD trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is < 47.5. A price movement of 203 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

02 Mar 02:00	02 Feb 02:00
05 Jan 02:00	02 Dec 02:00
02 Jul 00:00	03 May 00:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).