Based on the last 12 ECB Interest Rate Decision events in Euro Area, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 72.73% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 48 hours following the event release at 2023-06-15 22:15 if the released value is = 4%. A price movement of 354 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

03 Feb 00:15	16 Dec 00:15
27 Oct 23:15	09 Jun 21:45
14 Apr 21:45	10 Mar 23:45
16 Dec 23:45	24 Oct 22:45

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).