Want to know why USDCAD is going downwards today?

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in United Kingdom, we expect a $181.815 movement on USDCAD within 4 hours following the event release at 15 Jan 18:00. We expect USDCAD to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 15 Jan 18:00 if the released value is < £-1.2B Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

10 Dec 18:00
11 Sep 16:00
13 May 16:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).