Want to know why USDCHF is going downwards today?

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect a $520.891 movement on USDCHF within 12 hours following the event release at 21 Jul 09:50. We expect USDCHF to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 21 Jul 09:50 if the released value is < ¥460B Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

21 Jan 10:50
16 Dec 10:50
19 Oct 10:50
20 Jul 09:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).