We expect USDCHF to trend downwards later today. Based on these past Japan Balance of Trade news events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect this to happen if the released value is < ¥-1405B. A price movement of 251 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Jun 09:50	16 Mar 10:50
17 Feb 10:50	16 Dec 10:50
20 Oct 10:50	21 Jul 09:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).