Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect USDJPY to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect USDJPY to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 2023-05-18 09:50 if the released value is > ¥-613.8B. A price movement of 24 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

20 Apr 09:50	16 Mar 10:50
16 Feb 10:50	20 Oct 10:50
19 May 09:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).