Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Australia, we expect USDCAD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect USDCAD to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 03 Mar 11:30 if the released value is > A$9.05B. A price movement of 35 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

02 Dec 11:30	05 Oct 11:30
02 Sep 11:30	05 Aug 11:30
04 Mar 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).