Based on the last 12 Employment Change events in Australia, we expect AUDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 20 Feb 11:30 if the released value is > 10K. A price movement of 19 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

19 Sep 11:30	13 Jun 11:30
16 May 11:30	21 Feb 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).