Based on the last 12 NAB Business Confidence events in Australia, we expect NZDUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 09 Mar 11:30 if the released value is > 11. A price movement of 17 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

09 Feb 11:30	10 Nov 11:30
05 Oct 11:30	14 Jul 11:30
09 Jun 11:30	12 May 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).