What to trade around Australia NAB Business Confidence news event

Based on the last 12 NAB Business Confidence events in Australia, we expect AUDUSD to trend downwards right now. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards for the next 2 hours because the released value is < 24. A price movement of 15 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

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27 Jan 00:30