Based on the last 12 NAB Business Confidence events in Australia, we expect NZDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend downwards 48 hours following the event release at 10 Aug 11:30 if the released value is > 14. A price movement of 62 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

10 May 11:30	09 Feb 11:30
08 Dec 11:30	05 Oct 11:30
08 Sep 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).