Based on past Australia NAB Business Confidence news events there is a 83.33% chance of AUDUSD trending upwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > 6. A price movement of 19 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

09 Aug 11:30	12 Apr 11:30
08 Mar 11:30	08 Feb 11:30
14 Sep 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).