What to trade around Australia NAB Business Confidence news event

Based on the last 12 NAB Business Confidence events in Australia, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 12 May 01:30 if the released value is > -75. A price movement of 19 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

12 Nov 00:30
13 Aug 01:30