Based on the last 12 RBA Interest Rate Decision events in Australia, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 06 Jul 14:30 if the released value is = 0.1%. A price movement of 30 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

01 Jun 14:30	04 May 14:30
06 Apr 14:30	02 Mar 14:30
02 Feb 14:30	06 Oct 14:30
01 Sep 14:30	07 Jul 14:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).