Based on the last 12 BoC Interest Rate Decision events in Canada, we expect NZDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 03 Mar 02:00 if the released value is = 0.5%. A price movement of 23 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

27 Jan 02:00	09 Dec 02:00
28 Oct 01:00	09 Sep 00:00
15 Jul 00:00	10 Jun 00:00
11 Mar 02:00	10 Dec 02:00
29 Oct 01:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).