What to trade around Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision news event

Based on the last 12 BoC Interest Rate Decision events in Canada, we expect EURUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 81.82% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 16 Jul 00:00 if the released value is = 0.25%. A price movement of 41 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

04 Jun 00:00
16 Apr 00:00
23 Jan 02:00
31 Oct 01:00
05 Sep 00:00
11 Jul 00:00
25 Apr 00:00
07 Mar 02:00
10 Jan 02:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).