Based on the last 12 BoC Interest Rate Decision events in Canada, we expect USDCHF to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 72.73% chance of this. We expect USDCHF to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 15 Jul 00:00 if the released value is = 0.25%. A price movement of 28 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

22 Apr 00:00	21 Jan 02:00
10 Dec 02:00	29 Oct 01:00
10 Sep 00:00	04 Jun 00:00
16 Apr 00:00	23 Jan 02:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).