What to trade around Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision news event

Based on the last 12 BoC Interest Rate Decision events in Canada, we expect AUDUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend upwards 48 hours following the event release at 28 Oct 01:00 if the released value is = 0.25%. A price movement of 68 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

09 Sep 00:00
22 Apr 00:00
11 Mar 02:00
10 Dec 02:00
29 Oct 01:00
10 Sep 00:00
04 Jun 00:00
16 Apr 00:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).