Based on the last 12 Employment Change events in Canada, we expect USDCAD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 83.33% chance of this. We expect USDCAD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 09 Jul 22:30 if the released value is > 195K. A price movement of 35 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

09 Apr 22:30	13 Mar 00:30
05 Dec 00:30	09 Oct 23:30
10 Jul 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).