Based on the last 12 Inflation Rate YoY events in Canada, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 85.71% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 28 Jul 22:30 if the released value is > 3.2%. A price movement of 133 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Jun 22:30	19 May 22:30
18 Feb 00:30	19 Nov 00:30
21 Oct 23:30	22 Jul 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).