Based on the last 12 Inflation Rate YoY events in Canada, we expect USDCAD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect USDCAD to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 18 Aug 22:30 if the released value is > 3.4%. A price movement of 42 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Jun 22:30	19 May 22:30
18 Feb 00:30	17 Dec 00:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).