Based on the last 12 Ivey PMI s.a events in Canada, we expect USDCAD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect USDCAD to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 07 Mar 02:00 if the released value is > 53.6. A price movement of 40 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

08 Feb 02:00	07 Sep 00:00
08 Aug 00:00	08 May 00:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).