What to trade around Canada Ivey PMI s.a news event

Based on the last 12 Ivey PMI s.a events in Canada, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards right now. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards for the next 2 hours because the released value is < 68. A price movement of 31 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

08 Apr 00:00
07 Nov 02:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).