Based on the last 12 Consumer Confidence Flash events in Euro Area, we expect AUDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 24 Mar 02:00 if the released value is > -14.2. A price movement of 16 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

21 Feb 02:00	22 Nov 02:00
21 Sep 00:00	24 Jul 00:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).