Based on the last 12 Consumer Confidence Flash events in Euro Area, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 48 hours following the event release at 24 Jul 00:00 if the released value is < -12. A price movement of 91 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

24 Jan 02:00	21 Dec 02:00
24 Oct 01:00	23 Aug 00:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).