What to trade around Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash news event

Based on the last 12 Consumer Confidence Flash events in Euro Area, we expect AUDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 23 Jan 15:00 if the released value is > -7.8. A price movement of 11 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

21 Nov 15:00
20 Sep 14:00
23 Jul 14:00