Based on the last 12 ECB Interest Rate Decision events in Euro Area, we expect AUDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 16 Jul 21:45 if the released value is = 0%. A price movement of 85 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

30 Apr 21:45	12 Mar 23:45
23 Jan 23:45	24 Oct 22:45
12 Sep 21:45	25 Jul 21:45
06 Jun 21:45	07 Mar 23:45
24 Jan 23:45

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).