Based on the last 12 ECB Interest Rate Decision events in Euro Area, we expect USDJPY to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect USDJPY to trend upwards 12 hours following the event release at 21 Jan 23:45 if the released value is = 0%. A price movement of 98 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

29 Oct 23:45	10 Sep 21:45
16 Jul 21:45	04 Jun 21:45
30 Apr 21:45	12 Mar 23:45
12 Dec 23:45	12 Sep 21:45
25 Jul 21:45

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).