Based on the last 12 Industrial Production YoY events in Euro Area, we could expect USDJPY to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect USDJPY to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 13 May 19:00 if the released value is < -1%. A price movement of 16 pips could result. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

15 Mar 21:00	12 Jan 21:00
14 Jul 19:00	12 May 19:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).