Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Germany, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 07 May 16:00 if the released value is > €17.6B. A price movement of 25 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

09 Nov 18:00	07 Aug 16:00
08 May 16:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).