What to trade around Germany Balance of Trade news event

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Germany, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards right now. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards for the next 2 hours because the released value is > €17.6B. A price movement of 40 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

09 Nov 07:00
07 Aug 06:00
08 May 06:00