What to trade around Germany Balance of Trade news event

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Germany, we expect NZDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 07 Jan 07:00 if the released value is < €14.2B. A price movement of 18 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

09 Dec 07:00
09 Nov 07:00
08 Oct 06:00
09 Aug 06:00
08 Jul 06:00
08 Jan 07:00