Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Germany, we expect USDCAD to trend downwards right now. Based on these past events there is a 72.73% chance of this. We expect USDCAD to trend downwards for the next 2 hours because the released value is > €13.4B. A price movement of 15 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

10 Oct 17:00	09 Sep 16:00
09 Aug 16:00	08 Jul 16:00
07 Jun 16:00	10 May 16:00
08 Apr 16:00	11 Mar 18:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).