Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Germany, we expect USDCHF to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect USDCHF to trend upwards 48 hours following the event release at 09 Mar 18:00 if the released value is > €12.4B. A price movement of 159 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

09 Nov 18:00	07 Aug 16:00
08 May 16:00	09 Mar 18:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).