Based on the last 12 Ifo Business Climate events in Germany, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 17 Dec 20:00 if the released value is < 95.3. A price movement of 36 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

24 Nov 20:00	24 Sep 18:00
26 Apr 18:00	25 Jan 20:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).