Based on the last 12 Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash events in Germany, we expect USDCAD to trend upwards right now. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect USDCAD to trend upwards for the next 48 hours because the released value is > 44.8. A price movement of 40 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

24 Jan 19:30	22 Nov 19:30
22 Aug 17:30	21 Jun 17:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).