What to trade around Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash news event

Based on the last 12 Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash events in Germany, we expect NZDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 83.33% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 23 Jun 07:30 if the released value is > 41.5. A price movement of 12 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

21 Feb 08:30
24 Jan 08:30
22 Nov 08:30
22 Aug 07:30
21 Jun 07:30